Went down to Paradigm Infinitum yesterday to browse through their boardgames and decided to buy “Lost Cities” which is a two player cardgame.
Lost Cities is a game with two kinds of cards: expedition cards and investment cards. There are 5 sets of expedition cards where each set has 9 cards with values from 2 - 10. The idea is to play expedition cards in order of increasing value (but not necessarily in consecutive order). At the end of the game, the values of the cards played for each expedition is totalled and 20 points is substracted from this total. The 20 points represent the cost of the expedition and the remaining value after the deduction is the value of the expedition.
If no expedition cards have been played, the value of the expedition is zero. However, if any investment cards have been played for that expedition without any expedition cards for it played, then the value of the expedition is (number of investment cards + 1) * -20.
Investment cards can only be played for an expedition before any expedition cards are played for that expedition. There are 3 investment cards for each expedition. If at the end of the game, the value of an expedition is 10, then the points scored from it is (number of investment cards + 1) * 10. Playing an investment card is a risk because of the multiplier effect and the fact that an expedition could result in a negative value.
There are only two ways to get rid of a card from your hand - to play it or discard it. The thing about discarding cards is that your opponent can choose to draw the card that has been discarded by you. Once you have played a card or discarded it, only then can you draw another card or choose to take a card previously discarded.
After reading the rules, I started thinking of what were the possible strategies to play this game. Since you could only play investment cards at the start of an expedition, you would only want to play it when you are reasonably sure you can complete that expedition. The starting hand is 8 cards, so it would be unlikely that you can be sure an expedition can be completed based on that.
The rules can be found here.
I realised straightaway that one of the ‘agonizing’ moments of this game was when do you decide that the chance of completing an expedition based on the cards in your hand and the discarded cards is high enough to warrant the risk of playing an investment card before the start of that expedition.
Another ‘agonizing’ moment would be when to start an expedition but since the penalty of such an expedition is lower if its value is negative due to no investment card being played, then it would be reasonable to say that such an expedition could be started earlier with less certainty of completion and with less agony because the penalty is less (this is from the perspective of a slightly risk averse way of playing the game).
In any case, one cannot wait too long for the certainty of an expedition before starting to play it because the game ends when the last card is drawn so there might not be time to complete the planned expedition.
Somehow, at this point I started thinking about Singapore and all our investments to be a Biotech hub, an IDM hub, a Sports hub, a BTMICE hub…and whether they would pay off. I wonder whether we had the necessary ‘cards’ to finish the ‘expeditions’ and not be penalised because of the wasted investments.
While “Lost Cities” has an element of luck because one cannot predict the cards that will be drawn, the planning and execution of our investments is arguably not. However, in the context of the plans that Singapore has laid, it can be said that we do not control all the cards in our hand if we had them in the first place.
A lot of our plans seem to rest on the hope that we can attract foreign talent and keep them here. But as seen in the case of the Sentosa CEO Darrell Metzger leaving before the completion of the plan he created, we can never really count on foreign talent staying the course in Singapore. Sure, what he did while he was here was awesome and Sentosa has really really improved but one cannot help but feel he was using Singapore as a parking lot until something better came along. And do not be fooled by his sentiments that Sentosa will definitely be a success because the next stage is crucial and if not executed properly, all the good work will have be wasted.
While I don’t disagree with the idea that we should bring in foreign talent with the skills to meet a specific need that Singaporean cannot like what Mr Wang has said, an important aspect of this is knowledge transfer. One of the results of Mr Metzger leaving is a global head hunt for the next CEO. What? I know 3 years isn’t a very long time, but shouldn’t it have been part of some plan to put a Singaporean as an understudy so that if anything happens, we do not need to go out and do another head hunt to get a foreign talent in.
MM Lee said that Singaporeans should not have a crutch mentality, but I feel our country already do. Sometimes we are too dependent on foreign talent to ensure the success of our plans. And that is dangerous, because in the end, we will just get penalised. So if we do need foreign talent now, we need to ensure that we get as much knowledge transfer out of them as possible and not factor in that we can attract them here and get them to stay. If they stay, its a bonus. If they do not, then its ok, the plan still works based on attracting them and squeezing out of them as much knowledge as we can.
So like what Mr Wang talked about, we really only should bring in foreign talent that has some knowledge to transfer to us and not invest so much in the guppies of other nations and we need to make sure that in every industry, just like what Mr Yeo is doing for the biotech industry, that our guppies learn as much as possible from the whales as soon as possible.